第四部分：阅读理解(第31～45题，每题3分，共45分)
下面有3篇短文，每篇短文后有5道题，每题后面有4个选项。请仔细阅读短文并根据短文回答其后面的问题，从4个选项中选择1个最佳答案涂在答题卡相应的位置上。
第一篇
Forecasting Methods
There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast.
The first of these methods is the persistence method;the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degree today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degree tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use.
The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers, and areas of clouds and precipitation. Using this information, the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time. For example, if a storm system is 1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day, suing the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. if they slow down, speed up, change intensity, or change direction, the trends forecast will probably not work as well.
The climatology method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over man years to make the forecast. For example, if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for new York City on July 4th, you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. if the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year, the climatology method will often fail.
The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today's forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar (an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.
31 What factor is NOT mentioned in choosing a forecasting method? __________
A Imagination of the forecaster.
B Necessary amount of information.
C Practical knowledge of the forecaster.
D Degree of difficulty involved in forecasting.
32 Persistence method will work well __________.
A if weather conditions change greatly from day to day
B if weather conditions do not change much
C on sunny days
D on rainy days
33 The limitation of the trends method is the same as the persistence method in that __________.
A it makes predications about weather
B it makes predications about precipitation
C the weather features need to be well defined
D the weather features need to be constant for a long period of time
34 Which method may involve historical weather data? __________
A The trends method.
B The analog method.
C Both climatology method and analog method.
D The trends method and the persistence method.
35 It will be impossible to make weather forecast using the analog method __________.
A when the current weather scenario differs from the analog
B when the current weather scenario is the same as the analog
C when the analog is over ten years old
D when the analog is a simple repetition of the current weather scenario
第二篇
Lateral Thinking
Lateral thinking (迂回思维), first described by Edward de Bono in 1967, is just a few years older than Edward's son. You might imagine that Caspar was raised to be an adventurous thinker, but de Bono name was so famous, Casper's parents worried that any time he would say something bright at school, his teachers might snap, “Where do you get that idea from?”
“We had to be careful and not overdo it,” Edward admits. Now Casper is at Oxford --which once looked unlikely because he is also slightly dyslexic (诵读困难). In fact, when he was applying to Oxford, none of his school teachers thought he had a chance. “So then we did several thinking sessions,” his father says, “using my techniques and, when he went up for the exam, he did extremely well.” Soon after, Edward de Bono decided to write his latest book, “Teach Your Children How to Think”, in which he transforms the thinking skills he developed for brain-storming businessmen into informal exercises for parents and children to share.
Thinking is traditionally regarded as something executed in a logical sequence, and everybody knows that children aren't very logical. So isn't it an uphill battle, trying to teach them to think? “You know,” Edward de Bono says, “if you examine people's thinking, it is quite unusual to find faults of logic. But the faults of perception are huge! Often we think ineffectively because we take too limited a view. ”
“Teach Your Child How to Think” offers lessons in perception improvement, of clearly seeing the implications of something you are saying and of exploring the alternatives.
36 What is TRUE about Casper? __________
A He is Edward's son.
B He is an adventurous thinker.
C He first described lateral thinking.
D He is often scolded by his teacher.
37 Casper succeeded in applying to Oxford because __________.
A he was careful and often overworked
B all of his school teachers thought he had a chance
C he used in the exam the techniques provided by his father
D he read the book “Teach Your Child How to Think” before the exam
38 It can be inferred from Paragraph 2 that Edward __________.
A was likely to improve children's logic with his book
B gave a description of lateral thinking several years after his son was born
C was prompted to study lateral thinking because his son was slightly dyslexic
D once taught businessmen how to think before he wrote for parents and children
39 According to Paragraph 3, which of the following statements expresses Edward de Bono's view? __________
A Everybody knows that children aren't very logical.
B It is an uphill battle trying to teach children to think.
C We often think ineffectively because we take too limited a view.
D Thinking is traditionally regarded as something executed in a logical sequence.
40 Lateral thinking refers to the following EXCEPT __________.
A improving one's logic in thinking
B improving one's perception in thinking
C seeing the implications of what you are saying
D exploring the alternatives for what you are saying
第三篇
Global Warming
At the Kyoto conference on global warming in December 1997, it became abundantly clear how complex it has become to work out international agreements relating to the environment because of economic concerns unique to each country. It is no longer enough to try to forbid certain activities or to reduce emissions of certain substances. The global challenges of the interlink between the environment and development increasingly bring us to the core of the economic life of states. During the late 1980s we were able, through international agreements, to make deep cuts in emissions harmful to the ozone layer. These reductions were made possible because substitutions had been found for many of the harmful chemicals and, more important, because the harmful substances could be replaced without negative effects on employment and the economies of states.
Although the threat of global warming has been known to the world for decades and all countries and leaders agree that we need to deal with the problem, we also know that the effects of measures, especially harsh measures taken in some countries, would be nullified (抵消) if others countries do not control their emissions. Whereas the UN team on climate change has found that the emissions of carbon dioxide would have to be cut globally by 60% to stabilize the content of CO2 in the atmosphere, this path is not feasible for several reasons. Such deep cuts would cause a breakdown of the world economy. Important and populous (人口众多的) low--or medium-income countries are not yet willing to undertake legal commitments about their energy uses. In addition, the state of world technology would not yet permit us to make such a big leap.
We must, however, find a solution to the threat of global warming early in the 21st century. Such a commitment would require a degree of shared vision and common responsibilities new to humanity. Success lies in the force of imaginations, in imagining what would happen if we fail to act. Although many living in cold regions would welcome the global-warming effect of a warmer summer, few would cheer the arrival of the subsequent diseases, especially where there had been none.
41 The main purpose of this passage is to __________.
A convince people that global warming is a real threat
B criticize some countries for refusing to cut down emissions harmful to the ozone layer
C analyze the problem of global warming
D argue against making deep cuts in emissions
42 The reason why it is difficult to get rid of the threat of global warming is that __________.
A the leaders of many countries are not fully aware of the gravity of the problem
B world technology is not able to solve the problem
C not all the countries are willing to make deep cuts in emissions
D many people welcome the global—warming effect of a warmer summer
43 In the passage the author implies that __________.
A it is always difficult to work out international agreements to cut down emissions harmful to the ozone layer
B it is no longer easy to reach international agreements relating to the environment
C the world had recently become aware of the threat of global warming
D the problem of global warming has largely been solved
44 According to the author，it is impossible at present to cut 60%of carbon dioxide emissions globally because __________.
A it is only a goal to be reached in the future
B some people are lacking in imagination
C some people are irresponsible
D it would cause to a collapse of the world economy
45 What should all countries do to help solve the problem of global warming? __________.
A They should replace all the harmful substances.
B They should willingly undertake legal commitments about their energy uses.
C They should hold another world conference on climate change.
D They should provide advanced technology.
